Murder, Accident, Disease (MAD) Research!
I'm now planning to ride out hurricane season in Republica Dominicana.
Probably spend another week or so in the capital area, then head east along the coast.
I don't have an exact route yet, much of it depends on the roads, the attractions, weather, what I feel like, etc.
May need to leave enough time to get back to the capital in case of any border issues. So, figure on something like December exit.
I'm thinking that certain Caribbean countries are far more dangerous than developed countries.
1/100,000 japan?
5/100,000 france?
25/100,000 RD?
100/100,000 venezuela?
Murder/violent crime
Per year
6.2-7.6 global average.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
The overall murder rate has gone down over recent years. Perhaps in part because of better hospitals reducing the number of assaults that become murders.
The Americas and Africa (areas with large African populations) have four or five times as many murders as Eurasia or Oceania.
Central American countries have high murder rates.
Some small countries have no murders!
The US Virgin Islands, possibly my next destination after Hispaniola, have one of the highest rates, at around 50 per 100,000 per years. That's 5 per 10,000, or 1 per 2,000.
Mexico is at around 25, half the rate of some Caribbean countries.
Some of these countries with comparable murder rates feel far more dangerous than others. Maybe because of overall violent crime rates.
Republica Dominica is somewhat down the list, at only 11.3 per 100,000.
Haiti, in the same area, has 10.0 per 100,000.
The US has half the murder rate of Hispaniola, at 5.3/100,000.
European and Asian countries have rates around 1/100,000. In Japan, it's 0.2/100,000.
So a peaceful Eurasian country has around two hundred and fifty times fewer murders per capita than a violent Caribbean country!
The incarceration rates seem roughly to track the murder rates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate
The US has the largest rate, at 655/100,000.
Some cities have twice as many murders per capita as violent countries!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_by_murder_rate
Los Cabos and Caracas have over 110! That's five hundred times worse than Japan!
I've been through a sizable chunk of the top murder rate cities on the planet.
In some, the violence is largely directed at people fighting drug wars. In others, the city just feels dangerous.
Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, and the US have the most cities on the list.
This list of crime rates shows Republica Dominica as more dangerous.
https://www.numbeo.com/crime/rankings_by_country.jsp
This site shows the US rate of violent crime at 382.9 per 100,000.
https://www.statista.com/topics/1750/violent-crime-in-the-us/
Is driving more dangerous? I'm guessing so. 100/100,000?
Over a third of road traffic deaths in low- and middle-income countries are among pedestrians and cyclists. However, less than 35 percent of low- and middle-income countries have policies in place to protect these road users.[3] The average rate was 17.4 per 100,000 people. Low-income countries now have the highest annual road traffic fatality rates, at 24.1 per 100,000, while the rate in high-income countries is lowest, at 9.2 per 100,000.[3]
From <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate>
So traffic is about as dangerous as murder.
The way people drive in poor countries seems dangerous, and in fact it is:
In low-income countries it is even worse. Only one percent of the world's registered cars produce 16 percent of world's road traffic deaths.
From <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate>
It looks like traffic is more "compressed" than murder. In the safer countries, traffic is more dangerous, while in the more dangerous countries, traffic is safer than murder.
Half of the world's road traffic deaths occur among motorcyclists (23 percent), pedestrians (22 percent) and cyclists (5 percent) – i.e., "vulnerable road users" – with 31 percent of deaths among car occupants and the remaining 19 percent among unspecified road users.[4]
From <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate>
More than three-quarters of traffic fatalities are among males.
Switzerland has very safe drivers.
Disease can be a big killer.
Around 50 million people die per year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate
The overall death rate is around 1,000/100,000/pear, or 1% per year.
Diseases account for most of that, with cardiovascular at 250, infectious at 200, coronary artery and cancer and respiratory at over 100 each, stroke at nearly 100, HIV at nearly 50, digestive at a few dozen, and numerous other diseases on the list. Basically, disease kills.
Traffic seems like the leading non-disease cause, at only 19/100,000. Suicide has 14/100,000.
Violence is at 9, but with way more deaths among males than females.
Falling, drowning, poisoning, and fire each takes a handful per 100,000 per year, again more often for men.
Non-HIV STD's account for only 3/100,000/year.
War also accounts for only around 3.
Alcohol and drug abuse adds up to around 3.
Cancer peaks younger than I had thought, while cardiovascular keeps getting worse with age.
I would argue that perhaps the best thing one can do for safety is to take care of one's health. Eat well, exercise, balance stress, socialize, have fun! :)
A few percentage improvement to health probably does far more for longevity -- and happiness -- than fretting over unlikely events like car accidents, murder, etc.
The rate of killing by cops in Venezuela is far larger than the overall murder rate in many countries! It's double the global average!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_killings_by_law_enforcement_officers_by_countries
Dominican Republic is around halfway down the lists of development and peace, and further down the lists for competitiveness and not having corruption.
RD is also around halfway down the population list.
I think I'll like the northern coast of RD more.